San José State — 2026 schedule & results record 4-4 · model's picks 5-3 so far
Proj rating -15.8 · SOS -6.8 · Mean wins 4.0 · Picked 1-12 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri 09/04 | Eastern Michigan | away | W 27–21 | +1.5 ✓ | -9.7 | 29% | L ✗ | |
| 1 | Sat 08/29 | USC | away | L 26–42 | +37.25 ✓ | -34.0 | 2% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Cal Poly | home | W 30–20 | -21.5 ✗ | +15.3 | 82% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Fresno State | home | L 10–26 | +4 ✗ | -11.5 | 24% | L ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Hawai'i | away | W 20–16 | +2.75 ✓ | -16.1 | 17% | L ✗ | |
| 6 | Fri 10/09 | Wyoming | home | L 13–16 | -4.25 ✗ | -4.3 | 40% | L ✓ |
Wyoming +6.5 · WIN +17 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | UTEP | away | W 24–11 | -6.75 ✓ | -5.1 | 38% | L ✗ |
San José State -8 · WIN +27 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Nevada | away | L 13–28 | +5.75 ✗ | -8.5 | 31% | L ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | New Mexico | home | — | +14.75 | -7.0 | 35% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Northern Illinois | home | — | — | -3.5 | 42% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Air Force | away | — | — | -11.0 | 26% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | UNLV | home | — | — | -9.7 | 29% | L | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | North Dakota State | home | — | — | — | — | — |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.